Several years ago, I did a cross-country trip with my family. We laid out a rough plan of what we wanted to see, how long it’d take to get from Point A to B to C, and most importantly, what we wanted to eat!
When we hit the road, I did not drive looking primarily in the rear-view mirror, with an occasional glance at the gas gauge and the road signs, but looked ahead and tweaked the plan. Yet, that is often how business owners run their businesses; this year’s plan can often be “let’s do what we did last year – just more of it.” We look at whether we have cash in the bank and check our financial statements from last month and compare how we are doing against last year.
But we need to run our businesses with an eye on the future. No one has a crystal ball that provides perfect clarity on the future. A million factors and forces affect our business and most of them are not within our control. Forecasting and planning, by definition, require looking ahead a taking our best (hopefully educated) guess on what the future holds. I want to convince you that a rough, hazy plan is better than no plan!
You may not know where to start, so, here are some practical pointers:
MAKE THE PLAN – every forecast needs to answer the following questions:
1. Where am I? Assess your revenue, profitability, operations, market position and see how you are doing. What is working well and what isn’t?
2. Where do I want to be in the future? Lookout 3 to 5 years and write down goals. How much revenue growth, how much Net income Growth, what improvements are necessary for the business?
3. HOW do I get there? This is most critical. Identify actions/investments you could take/make to attain your goals. These might include:
a. Establishing new markets
b. Creating new products
c. Adding key staff
d. Improving processes
4. What is most important? Prioritize your “improvements” and plan them over 3 to 5 years. Tackle 2 or 3 goals per year.
5. The end result should be:
a. How much will my revenue grow in the next few years?
b. How much will my bottom line growth in the next few years?
c. Who do I need to hire/ get on the bus?
d. What improvement do I need to make?
e. How much will this cost?
WORK THE PLAN – once the plan is created, establish a consistent, routine review and adjust as needed. This includes:
1. Monthly review of financial performance against the plan – including, Revenue, Cost of Goods, Overhead, Net income, and other key metrics as appropriate. This obviously implies a monthly budget.
2. Monthly (or more frequent) review of strategic projects. Routinely assess whether you are making progress on your major goals; are you Ahead, Ontrack, Behind, Dead-in-the-Water.
3. Adjust course – if you are not “on Plan”, why? What are the causes of the “variance” and what do you need to do to get back on track?
4. Modify the plan as needed – the “crystal ball” is hazy and there is no perfect plan. As you adjust you will learn your capacity for change, as well as identify ways to improve that capacity.
Start Now and Keep It Simple – In planning our road trip, we identified key sights to see along the way, and saw most of them. We paced ourselves and enjoyed the trip. You may not know how to forecast, but you DO know your business! Trust your experience and make a “road trip” plan to identify the following, at a minimum:
· Revenue goals for next 5 years
· Net Income goals for the next 5 years
· New Critical Hires & the cost
· Major projects & the cost
When you shift your gaze out, you are more able to see the business as an asset, rather than a job. The team knows where you are going and will often get on board to help stay on track. Looking ahead allows you to see the potholes in the road before you hit them. Hopefully, you will start to enjoy the business more. Proven ability to grow is a key value driver when selling a company – but, it may actually help you build the company you want to KEEP!
